By 
Ukraine stands head-over-shoulders over its challenges, and this is reflected in its economy despite the war with Russia. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) says GDP growth is expected to moderate to 2 to 3 percent in 2025.
According to the IMF, the economy of Ukraine has continued to show resilience despite the challenges arising from three years of war in Ukraine. Real GDP growth is estimated at 3.5 percent for 2024, but is expected to moderate to 2to 3 percent in 2025, reflecting headwinds from labour constraints, damage to energy infrastructure, and the persistence of Russia’s war in Ukraine.
Inflation has continued to rise, reaching 12.9 percent y/y in January, mainly due to rising food and labour costs. The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) raised the policy rate by a cumulative 150 bps since December in response. Gross international reserves reached US$43 billion as of January 2025, reflecting continued large external official support. Risks remain exceptionally high given uncertainty on the war and the prospects for peace and recovery.
An International Monetary Fund (IMF) team led by Mr. Gavin Gray held discussions with the Ukrainian authorities in Kyiv, Ukraine and Warsaw, Poland during February 20 to 28 on the Seventh Review of the country’s 4-year Extended Fund Facility (EFF) Arrangement. Upon the conclusion of the discussions, Mr. Gray issued the following statement:
“IMF staff and the Ukrainian authorities have reached staff-level agreement on the Seventh Review of the EFF, subject to approval by the IMF Executive Board, with Board consideration expected in coming weeks.
“Ukraine’s four-year EFF Arrangement with the IMF continues to provide a strong anchor for the authorities’ economic program in times of exceptionally high uncertainty. Program performance remains strong with all quantitative performance criteria for end-December met, and important progress on the structural agenda due for this review. Reflecting a revised profile of balance of payments needs in 2025, Ukraine has requested to rephase access under its EFF program, shifting IMF financing to future reviews while the overall size of the program remains unchanged,” said Gray.
IMF says the 2025 budget targets a deficit (excluding grants) of 19.6 percent of GDP and remains the anchor for fiscal policy this year. It incorporates the additional revenue derived from the increase in tobacco excise taxes and enactment of this tax policy change is a requirement for completion of the review. Financing the large fiscal deficit will require significant and timely external support, notably from the G7’s ERA initiative, to support macroeconomic stability. Responding to high budget risks will require preparedness with offsetting measures; in particular broad-based, durable, and efficient revenue measures and accelerated implementation of Ukraine’s National Revenue Strategy (NRS).
Restoring medium-term fiscal sustainability requires determined implementation of reforms to mobilize domestic revenues, tackle tax evasion and avoidance, and improve the investment climate. Tax policy reforms need also to be coupled with improvements in tax administration with continued reforms to the state customs service (SCS) and state tax service (STS). Restoring debt sustainability hinges on this revenue-based fiscal adjustment and continued implementation of the authorities’ debt restructuring strategy (where completing the treatment of the GDP warrants remains important). The upcoming 2026-2028 budget declaration that is to be submitted to Parliament in June will be an important opportunity to provide both the context and strategic objectives of the medium-term fiscal strategy.
“Given the risks from rising inflation, the recent increases in the policy rate by the NBU are appropriate. Further action would be warranted if inflation accelerates further or inflation expectations deteriorate. The exchange rate should increasingly act as a shock absorber. Maintaining adequate reserves is a priority, particularly in view of risks to the outlook.
The independence, competence, and credibility of anti-corruption and judicial institutions should continue to be enhanced. Parliamentary adoption this week of the law establishing the High Administrative Court, a benchmark under the program, is a landmark step in this direction. Swift enactment of the law would pave the way for prompt establishment of the court,” said Gray.
“Effective public investment management (PIM) is critical for post-war recovery, reconstruction, and growth against a backdrop of limited fiscal space and tough demographic realities. To tackle these challenges, the government of Ukraine is implementing a comprehensive PIM framework that is in line with best international practices. A strategy-driven and transparent approach is essential to overcome absorption capacity constraints and allocate scarce resources efficiently.
The financial sector remains stable, but continued vigilance is warranted given elevated risks. Developing financial markets infrastructure will be critical to support prompt reconstruction and recovery by facilitating much needed private investment, including attracting foreign capital. Comprehensive consultation and collaboration with financial market participants is essential to facilitate preparation of a prioritized reform agenda, which the NBU has begun in collaboration with other relevant stakeholders,” he continued.
