By JOHANNESBURG — With just eight weeks remaining before South Africans head to the polls on November 4, 2026, the country’s political landscape resembles a highly volatile, fragmented chessboard.
According to the latest flagship “Pulse of the People” study released by market research firm Ipsos, electoral outcomes in key metropolitan municipalities remain far from settled, with large swathes of persuadable voters and potential stay-aways holding the key to power.
The survey, conducted in-person across all nine provinces between June and July 2026 among 3,600 randomly selected adults, highlights an electorate marked by high interest but uneven commitment to turnout, setting up fierce localized battles that could dramatically redraw the map of local governance.
High Interest, Complex Turnout Dynamics
On paper, civic engagement appears strong. Among the 70% of respondents who are registered voters, two-thirds express interest in politics (33% “very interested” and 33% “somewhat interested”). Furthermore, roughly three-quarters indicate they are likely to vote on election day, with 33% stating they are “very likely” and 43% “likely”.
However, political analysts caution that expressing an intent to vote does not automatically translate into casting a ballot. When presented with a simulated secret electronic ballot, a significant portion of registered voters opted not to choose a party or indicated they would stay home.
Provisional turnout intentions vary sharply by region. The Western Cape (84%) and Limpopo (83%) showcase the highest levels of participating registered voters. Conversely, prospective voter drop-off is acute across the central and eastern heartlands: nearly three in ten registered voters in North West (29%), the Northern Cape (28%), the Free State (30%), and KwaZulu-Natal (24%) currently express no intention to vote.
PROVINCIAL PARTICIPATION VS. NON-VOTERS (REGISTERED VOTERS)
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Western Cape : [84%] | Non-voters: 16%
Limpopo : [83%] | Non-voters: 17%
Mpumalanga : [82%] | Non-voters: 18%
Gauteng : [80%] | Non-voters: 20%
Eastern Cape : [77%] | Non-voters: 23%
KwaZulu-Natal : [76%] | Non-voters: 24%
Northern Cape : [72%] | Non-voters: 28%
North West : [71%] | Non-voters: 29%
Free State : [70%] | Non-voters: 30%
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Source: Ipsos Khayabus 2026 (June–July 2026)
“For political parties, these non-voters represent an enormous reservoir of persuadable citizens,” notes the report. Mobilizing even a fraction of these stay-away voters could swing tightly fought races, particularly in major urban centres.
National Picture: Fractured Loyalties
Among registered voters who indicated a party preference, national figures confirm that no single party commands a majority:
- African National Congress (ANC): 31%
- Democratic Alliance (DA): 25%
- uMkhonto weSizwe Party (MK): 14%
- Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF): 11%
- ActionSA: 6%
- Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP): 3%
- Patriotic Alliance (PA): 2%
- Other Parties / Don’t Know: 8%
While the ruling ANC retains a plurality nationwide, its provincial footings differ drastically. The party maintains robust support in its traditional strongholds of Limpopo (58%) and the Eastern Cape (56%), but faces steep hills in Gauteng (26%), KwaZulu-Natal (11%), and the Western Cape (25%).
The opposition DA maintains dominance in the Western Cape (47%) and shows competitive strength in the Free State (41%), Northern Cape (30%), and Gauteng (27%). Meanwhile, former President Jacob Zuma’s MK party has firmly entrenched itself in KwaZulu-Natal, capturing an impressive 50% of provincial voter preferences in the survey, while maintaining modest footholds in Gauteng (10%) and Mpumalanga (8%).
Metro By Metro: Eight Distinct Battles
The local municipal elections will be decided in the trenches of South Africa’s eight metropolitan areas, where distinct political dynamics are unfolding.
METRO VOTING INTENTION BREAKDOWN (%)
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Party | JHB | TSH | EKU | ETH | NMB* | BUF* | CPT | MAN*
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ANC | 31 | 22 | 24 | 10 | 37 | 29 | 26 | 32
DA | 28 | 31 | 21 | 17 | 37 | 33 | 48 | 36
MK | 8 | 5 | 18 | 55 | * | * | * | 5
EFF | 8 | 9 | 10 | 3 | 8 | 27 | 11 | 17
ActionSA | 14 | 11 | 13 | 4 | 5 | * | * | 2
IFP | * | * | * | 6 | * | * | * | *
PA | 3 | 2 | 2 | * | 5 | 4 | 8 | *
Others/DK | 10 | 20 | 12 | 5 | 8 | 7 | 9 | 2
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*Note: Asterisk (*) indicates support <2% or small sample size (NMB, BUF, MAN, NC).
Source: Ipsos Khayabus 2026
1. The Gauteng Heartland (Johannesburg, Tshwane, Ekurhuleni)
Gauteng remains a fierce multi-party arena. In Johannesburg, the ANC leads narrowly at 31%, with the DA close behind at 28%, ActionSA holding a strong 14%, and both MK and the EFF at 8%. Crucially, 17% of registered voters in Johannesburg indicate they will not vote.
In Tshwane, the DA holds a slight edge over the ANC (31% vs. 22%), with ActionSA polling at 11% and 26% of voters currently planning to stay away. In Ekurhuleni, the vote is split among four main players: ANC (24%), DA (21%), MK (18%), and ActionSA (13%), with 22% undecided or disengaged.
2. The Coastal Giants (Cape Town & eThekwini)
Cape Town remains the DA’s strongest fortress, with the party pulling 48% of the vote against the ANC’s 26%, EFF’s 11%, and PA’s 8%. With 15% non-voters, the DA is positioned to target an outright majority as campaigning reaches its peak.
In sharp contrast, eThekwini (Durban) has seen a dramatic reshaping. MK commands an absolute majority of 55%, leaving the DA at 17%, the ANC struggling at 10%, and the IFP at 6%.
3. Eastern Cape & Free State Hubs
In Buffalo City, the EFF has emerged as a major factor, capturing 27% support and challenging the traditional leading parties (DA at 33%, ANC at 29%). Nelson Mandela Bay shows a neck-and-neck tie between the ANC and DA at 37% each. In Mangaung, the DA leads at 36%, closely followed by the ANC at 32% and the EFF at 17%. (Note: Data for NMB, Buffalo City, and Mangaung reflect smaller metro sample sizes and should be interpreted with caution).
The Coalition Imperative
The core takeaway from the data is the sheer fragmentation of local preferences. Outside of Cape Town and eThekwini, no single political party appears on track to secure an outright 50%+1 majority in the major metros.
“What stands out is that there is no single metropolitan story unfolding across South Africa,” explains Mari Harris, Senior Political Analyst at Ipsos South Africa. “Different parties are competing from very different positions of strength depending on the metro. Currently, only MK shows a strong dominant position in eThekwini, suggesting that many metros are headed for coalition governments.”
This reality places coalition governance back at the centre of the national conversation. Post-election negotiations, party alliances, and formal coalition agreements will ultimately determine who appoints mayors, controls municipal budgets, and oversees service delivery for millions of urban residents.
With two months of intensive campaigning ahead—marked by campaign blitzes, manifesto launches, and mayoral announcements—the battle for South Africa’s cities remains completely open. The final verdict will belong to the millions of persuadable voters who have yet to decide whether to step up to the ballot box on November 4.
Data Source: Ipsos Khayabus “Pulse of the People” study (June–July 2026), conducted via face-to-face interviews among a nationally representative sample of 3,600 South African adults. Overall registered voter margin of error is ±1.77% at a 95% confidence level.
