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It is now back to reality, schools are open and the employed are going back to work. Many will also be typing and sending their CVs in search of employment with the hope that at least this year things will be different; however, the crucial question is, who is likely to find employment?
Currently the unemployment rate as reported by Stats SA is sitting at 31.9% in the third quarter of 2025. Following the trends of employment, on who is likely to transition into employment, this will empower job seekers to at least increase their chances of finding employment.
According to Stats SA, there are number of factors considered in increasing one’s chances to transition into employment; as we all know, numbers don’t lie, these include education, age, gender, and geographical area.
According to Stats SA, in 2019, about 94.0% of the people who were employed in the third quarter were still employed in the fourth quarter. Fast tracking to 2024, the figure dipped to 91.4% signalling a shift in employment stability.
The report also showed that the same trend appears among people who were not economically active. In 2019, 90,7% stayed in that category between Q3 and Q4, compared to 89,0% in 2024. For those who were unemployed, the change is even more noticeable: 74,2% remained unemployed between the two quarters in 2019, while in 2024, that number fell to 72,8%. These small changes tell a bigger story about movement in the labour market.
Given the trends, who is likely to get employment then?
According to Stats SA, the data shows some interesting patterns about who transitions into employment. People with prior work experience had a much better chance of finding a job in 2024—9,8% compared to 2,6% for those without experience. Education also matters: those with a tertiary qualification saw a 7,5% transition rate, while people without matric managed only 4,8%.
Age and gender play a role too. Youth had a transition rate of 4,3%, and women 4,6%, both lower than adults (7,3%) and men (6,5%).
Where you live makes a difference
Retention rates vary across provinces. Western Cape led the way with 93,9% of employed people staying in employment, while Free State had the lowest retention rate at 87,8%. When it comes to moving into employment, North West recorded the lowest transition rate at 4,4%.
Job Security and Contract Type
Permanent contracts offer the most stability. People on permanent contracts were far more likely to stay employed than those on limited or unspecified contracts. Interestingly, employees with unspecified contracts were the most likely to move into roles as employers or own-account workers (2,6%), compared to 1,4% for limited contracts and 1,0% for permanent ones.
Skills and Industry Matter
Low-skilled workers faced the highest risk of leaving employment—12,3% in 2024—followed by semi-skilled workers at 8,2%. Skilled workers were much more secure, with only 2,8% moving out of employment. Industry trends show a similar pattern: those in primary sector industries had an 11,5% likelihood of leaving employment, higher than other sectors.
Short-Term vs Long-Term Unemployment
The longer someone is unemployed, the harder it becomes to find work. People in short-term unemployment had a 17,5% chance of transitioning into employment in 2024, compared to just 7,4% for those in long-term unemployment. Given the trends, it would be worth it to invest in education, and to at least stay in that temporary job you hate to gain experience and skills; which will work in one’s favour later
