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As we count down to the State of the Nation Address (SONA) tonight, here is what we can expect from President Cyril Ramaphosa. This SONA is unique as it will be the first full-year of the Government of National Unity (GNU) and has its own unique challenges.
The GNU
Ramaphosa will give feedback on how the GNU worked in its first year, with the economy recovering and inflation cooling down; it is expected for the President to present the GNU as working very well, and with its teething challenges.
We have seen major clashes on ideology within the GNU on foreign policy matters, economy and other domestic matters. We have seen the clashing ideas on the BELA ACT and the National Health Insurance Bill. All of these are expected to be dismissed as teething problems and that the GNU is stable and running like a well-oiled machine.
Load-shedding
On this point, I expect the President to pitch a tent here, as it is one of the biggest achievements of his administration, managing to end load-shedding and supply reliable power throughout the country, with some exceptions of load reduction in some areas.
According to Eskom, South Africa has now experienced 266 consecutive days without an interrupted supply, with only 26 hours of load-shedding recorded in April and May 2025, during this financial year.
The Energy Availability Factor (EAF) has further increased to 65.03% for the financial year to date (1 April 2025 to 5 February 2026), underscoring the progress being made in restoring fleet reliability and strengthening system stability. The generation fleet has now achieved or exceeded the 70% EAF threshold on an increasing number of occasions, reaching 66 instances to date (unaudited figures).
This is good for industry, especially the mining sector which was adversely affected by load-shedding.
The Economy
The South African Reserve Bank (SARB) announced that the economy of the country has been growing for four consecutive fiscal quarters, growth is projected at 1,4%, this, Ramaphosa is expected to touch on as an exhibit that his government is working hard in turning the tide around.
We see mining recovering alongside other industries, an indication that the economy is on a recovery trajectory. Recently South Africa credit rating was upgraded from BB- to BB, also one the key achievements of the GNU.
Inflation is also hovering close to its 3% target averaging at 3.2%.
Local government
During the ANC’s January 8th statement, the party made it clear that they will be paying special attention to municipalities, to get them functioning effectively with reliable and regular service delivery. The president is expected to also talk on this point, more so that it is election year.
