By DURBAN — A seismic political realignment is underway in KwaZulu-Natal’s largest metropolitan area, as dramatic new survey data reveals a catastrophic collapse in voter support for the African National Congress (ANC) in eThekwini, alongside a decisive surge for former President Jacob Zuma’s uMkhonto weSizwe Party (MKP).
According to the latest eNCA MarkData Election Survey, the MKP has surged to a commanding lead in the coastal municipality, polling at 48.0% among prospective voters in the upcoming local government elections. The Democratic Alliance (DA) trails in second place at 25.2%, while the ruling ANC has plummeted to a historic low of just 14.5%.
The Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP) garnered 6.0% of the vote, followed by the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) at 2.5%, the National Coloured Congress (NCC) at 0.7%, and both ActionSA and the Patriotic Alliance at 0.5% each. Smaller parties, including the ACDP (0.3%), Freedom Front Plus (0.2%), Rise Mzansi (0.1%), and Al Jama-ah (0.0%), accounted for minimal support, with “Other” parties taking 1.3%.
The poll paints a picture of an electorate deeply disillusioned with municipal governance and intent on delivering a punitive verdict at the ballot box.
A Widespread Crisis of Confidence
When asked to evaluate the performance of eThekwini Municipality over the past five years, a sweeping majority expressed dissatisfaction. Nearly three in ten respondents (29.7%) stated the municipality has been “extremely badly run,” while a further 28.6% said it has “not been well run”. Combined, 58.3% of respondents rendered a negative verdict on the city’s governance.
Only 8.7% of surveyed residents felt the municipality had been “very well run,” while 27.3% described its performance as “only averagely well run,” and 5.7% answered “don’t know”.
When asked who is primarily to blame for the broader decline of South Africa’s major cities—characterized by severe disruptions to water and electricity supply, sewage overflows, neglected roads, and deteriorating basic services—an overwhelming 74.6% of respondents singled out the ANC. In contrast, 5.3% blamed the DA, 3.9% blamed the MKP, 1.7% pointed to the EFF, and 2.8% held smaller parties responsible, with 11.8% undecided.
Water Security and Flood Recovery Fuel Public Backlash
The survey highlights specific operational pain points that have eroded public trust in municipal leadership, particularly regarding water management and post-disaster recovery.
Persistent water outages and infrastructure breakdowns across eThekwini have drawn intense public anger. Asked whether the Mayor and the municipality have managed water supply challenges effectively over the last five years, 62.7% of respondents declared them “hopeless” and called for a “different mayor and a different ruling majority”. Conversely, 25.3% agreed that officials had “done as well as they could” and deserved support, while 12.0% remained undecided.
A similar sentiment surrounds the municipality’s response to severe flood damage that has repeatedly hit the metro in recent years. A majority of 58.6% condemned the local administration as hopeless, demanding new leadership and a new governing coalition. Just 28.4% felt local officials had done their best under the circumstances, while 13.0% recorded “don’t know”.
Political Implications for eThekwini
The eNCA MarkData polling figures signal a dramatic shift in the political balance of power in eThekwini, traditionally a vital power base for the ANC.
With the MKP nearing an outright majority at 48.0%, the results suggest that local governance in KwaZulu-Natal’s economic heartland could undergo a sweeping transformation come election day. The ANC’s drop to third place behind the DA underscores how deeply service delivery failures, infrastructural decay, and management missteps have alienated voters in the metro.
