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Could the passing of the budget be the straw that broke the back of the camel? Will the Democratic Alliance (DA) leave the Government of National Unity (GNU)? Is South Africa going to witness a reshuffle in cabinet and the introduction of the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) into government?
Once again, the African National Congress (ANC) has proved itself to be a master player in politics and has emerged victorious over a strong push back from opposition parties against the proposed budget that involved a 0.5% hike in VAT.
At some point, the DA was confident that the ANC will not be able to secure enough votes to get the budget passed without them, however, the ANC approached the smaller parties within the GNU and secured enough votes to get the budget through; what the negotiations were and what the parties were promised is yet to be seen because in politics, numbers matters and there is nothing for free.
The ANC has always found a way to survive difficult situations and they have mastered the art of navigation and negotiation. As much as the DA positioned itself as the only option for the ANC to get the budget through and also took advantage in advancing its own ideological goals, the two parties logged horns and could not reach an agreement.
The likes of the EFF have given the GNU an expiry date of two years, given their opposed ideology which was evident that soon, they will clash and it will take serious humility, restraint and commitment to the nation to run the GNU successfully, however, it seems both parties are not willing to get off their high horses.
Cracks have been showing and widening in the GNU, emanating from the ANC and the DA, it seems the technic the ANC is playing is that of playing the man instead of politics; while the DA is playing politics, trying to expose the incompetence of the ANC, the liberation party is frustrating the DA with the intent to push them out of the GNU, for them to leave voluntarily; and it seems to be working like a charm.
The ANC has taken a centre left stance in the GNU, trying to reach a compromise, while the DA is outright right politics have made them to be so ambitious to want to control the GNU and for South Africa to put markets and business first and its people second.
Now that the budget has passed, the question is, will the DA stay or leave? Will it work with a budget it did not support? But the tricky part here is, if they leave, the EFF, which they declared enemy number one and is has boldly declared its fealty to Marxism, might replace them because it has the required numbers to fill whatever vacancy that will be created by the DA’s departure.
The EFF has already raised its hand and availed itself to serve should the DA leave. The ANC Secretary General Fikile Mbalula said the ball is in the DA’s court, whether they leave or not, indicating that there will be no crisis at all should the DA exit the GNU; on the other hand, the DA is yet to decide to either exit or to stay, but are they willing to make way for the EFF? They might stay just to prevent the EFF from entering government.
Ironically, the DA has filed papers at court to challenge the budget vote, the EFF also is considering to either, pursue a separate case or join the DA in opposing the budget vote; a clear indication that in politics, one does not have permanent enemies or friends. You are friends as long as you have a common enemy.
The GNU is full of twists and turns, a day is a long time in the GNU as so much can happen, this however creates uncertainty, the markets reacted positively when the DA joined the GNU, and also responded negatively when it seemed that the formation of the GNU that excluded the DA was going to happen.
The DA is now playing that card, to say if the GNU collapses or they leave the GNU, the markets will react negatively, but the ANC is refusing to be held hostage by the DA.
As the week unfolds, we will be watching with keen interest on the developments. But the question remains, a question that can only be answered by the DA, will they leave or will they stay?
