By By Marcus Motshegwa, Communication Specialist for the Department of Water and Sanitation in the Free State Province.
Climate analysts and international meteorological agencies have signalled a high probability of a strong El Niño weather pattern developing during late 2026 and extending into 2027. Experts warn that the resulting hot, dry conditions could create an environment conducive to severe droughts and devastating wildfires across South Africa.
This is a warning that cannot be ignored. The Department of Water and Sanitation (DWS) in the Free State province has expressed concerns over the adverse impacts that previous El Niño events have had on the Province’s socio-economic and environmental sectors.
The local government sphere remains particularly vulnerable, with water service delivery among the most affected functions. Potable water supply is largely dependent on raw water sourced from rivers and stored in dams. Prolonged drought conditions associated with El Niño often lead to reduced water availability, placing significant pressure on municipal water supply systems, water treatment infrastructure, and the ability of local authorities to provide sustainable services to communities.
The agricultural sector is also particularly vulnerable to the effects of this phenomenon, as it relies heavily on consistent rainfall patterns and stable water supplies.
The Department of Water and Sanitation is encouraging municipalities in the Free State to develop early preparedness action plans to mitigate challenges that might prevail during springs and summer. Preparations should include repairing leaks and reducing non-revenue water losses. Accelerating maintenance of water treatment plants, pumps and pipelines.
Expanding monitoring of dam levels, river flows, groundwater reserves and water quality. Protecting reservoirs, boreholes and strategic wellfields. Reviewing and updating drought-response and water-restriction plans. Developing emergency water supply and contingency measure. Strengthening public awareness campaigns and promoting water conservation practices.
The Free State enters this potential drought cycle in a stronger position than during previous El Niño periods. Two successive La Niña seasons have delivered above-average rainfall, replenishing rivers, dams and groundwater reserves across much of the province. Current dam levels in the Free State stand at approximately 100.4% of capacity, compared with 100% at the same time last year. However, these encouraging figures should not lead to complacency.
The province is currently transitioning from winter to spring, a period often associated with rising temperatures, increased evaporation and increases in water demand . What may appear to be a comfortable water position today could rapidly deteriorate under a prolonged El Niño event.
The Department of Water and Sanitation has identified several municipalities across the Free State that face varying degrees of water-resource vulnerability during severe drought conditions. These assessments focus specifically on raw water availability, excluding infrastructure failures and operational challenges. Key risks include declining river flows, accelerated evaporation, limited catchment yields and depleted groundwater resources.
Among the most vulnerable areas is Mangaung Metropolitan Municipality, which serves Bloemfontein, Botshabelo, Thaba Nchu, Soutpan, Dewetsdorp and Vanstadensrus. The municipality relies heavily on water from the Caledon River, supplemented by Groothoek, Rustfontein, Welbedacht and Knellpoort dams, as well as regional groundwater aquifers.
Extended periods of drought and heatwaves could significantly reduce runoff from the Lesotho highlands, lower dam levels through excessive evaporation and place additional pressure on groundwater reserves.
Moqhaka Local Municipality, which serves Kroonstad, Viljoenskroon and Steynsrus, depends primarily on the Vals River system, Bloemhoek Dam and Serfontein Dam. The Vals River is highly seasonal and vulnerable to prolonged droughts. Reduced river flows and declining inflows could leave reservoirs exposed to severe evaporation losses while limiting groundwater recharge in surrounding areas.
Mafube Local Municipality, serving Villiers, Tweeling, Frankfort and Cornelia, relies largely on direct river abstraction from the Vaal and Wilge river systems. Without substantial storage infrastructure or balancing reservoirs, reduced river flows during El Niño conditions could rapidly affect water availability at abstraction points. Low levels of Vaal dam will also expose the Villiers abstraction point.
In the eastern Free State, Maluti-a-Phofung Local Municipality depends on the Upper Wilge River catchment, as well as the Fika-Patso and Metsi Matsho dams. Despite the municipality’s location within a generally high-rainfall region, its relatively small catchment areas remain susceptible to prolonged drought. Reduced mountain runoff could significantly affect reservoir storage levels.
Nketoana Local Municipality, including Arlington, Lindley, Reitz and Petrus Steyn, relies on the Vals River, Liebenbergsvlei River and smaller tributary systems. These highly seasonal water sources are vulnerable to rapid flow depletion during prolonged dry spells. Within Dihlabeng Local Municipality, Fouriesburg depends heavily on the Caledon River. Reduced runoff from the Lesotho highlands combined with high evaporation rates could substantially diminish available water resources during extended drought conditions.
Similarly, Setsoto Local Municipality, serving Ficksburg, Senekal and Clocolan, derives much of its water from the Caledon River and associated storage dams. Reduced river flows and declining reservoir levels would increase the municipality’s exposure to water shortages.
Mantsopa Local Municipality, including Ladybrand, Tweespruit and Excelsior, relies on the Caledon River, several local dams and shallow groundwater systems. During prolonged drought periods, both river flows and groundwater levels can decline simultaneously, placing additional strain on municipal water supplies.
Mohokare Local Municipality, serving Zastron, Rouxville and Smithfield, obtains water from the Orange and Caledon rivers and several smaller municipal dams. Although the Orange River provides a relatively stable source, smaller dams remain highly vulnerable to evaporation losses during intense heatwaves.
Kopanong Local Municipality, responsible for Trompsburg, Jagersfontein and Fauresmith, depends on groundwater resources, the Riet River and bulk transfers from Kalkfontein Dam. Prolonged drought would increase demand on already stressed groundwater systems.
Meanwhile, Tokologo Local Municipality, serving Boshof, Dealesville and Hertzogville, remains heavily dependent on groundwater and bulk water schemes. Limited natural recharge during prolonged dry conditions could lead to declining borehole yields and increasing water-security risks. The lessons from previous drought cycles are clear. Water security cannot be measured solely by current dam levels. Municipalities must prepare well in advance by reducing water losses, strengthening infrastructure resilience and improving resource management.
El Niño remains a natural climate phenomenon, but its impacts can be managed through proactive planning and responsible water stewardship. The Free State has a valuable opportunity to prepare while its dams remain full, and water resources are relatively stable. Waiting until reservoirs begin to decline will be too late. The time to act is now!
