ANC losing support ahead of elections

ANC losing support ahead of elections

To pull out a rabbit out a hat in this year’s elections to win an outright majority, the African National Congress (ANC) will have to hope for a low voter turnout which will push them above the 50% mark.

The world is changing fast, what was yesterday may not be tomorrow. We have the global climate change, the global South emerging as an economic force and global politics showing a different face compared to the previous years. Domestic politics in South Africa are not immune to this either.

According to the Ipsos electoral polls, the ANC is likely to attain 39% support in this year’s elections. The Democratic Alliance (DA) and the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) are neck on neck fighting for the official opposition party position with the DA likely to receive 16% and the EFF 15%. The other older parties are in intensive care unit dying off slowly, while ActionSA is likely to get 3%, just behind the Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP) at 4%.

The ANC had a strong hold in the Free State province, but the numbers also seem to have taken a nose dive mainly due to corruption fatigue, none-service delivery, unfulfilled promises and the dairy farm and asbestos scandal of the former Premier Ace Magashule. The polls show that the ANC is like to get 42% support in the upcoming elections in the province, down from 61% in 2019.

As much the ANC is losing support, it still has a stronghold in rural areas. The trajectory shows that the ruling party is becoming more of a rural party as time lapses. Majority of its supporters come from rural communities at 50%, in urban areas the ANC holds 38% and 33% in metropolitan areas.

Voter turnout, unless something drastic happens, is expected to be between 45% and 50%, most of the ANC supporters remain loyal to the party because of the trust deficit towards the liberation party, they would rather stay home than to vote for other parties. A low turnout is expected due to voters having lost confidence in government or in politicians themselves.

The low turnout in both urban and metropolitan areas may not shake the ANC that much because support in the rural areas will make up for it, putting the ANC back in government. Turnout for DA and EFF voters is estimated to be around 18% and 22%, while the ANC voter turnout is predicted to be around 45% and 50%.

The multi-party charter, positioning itself as the preferred party to remove the ANC from government, is expected to receive only 31% to 33% of the votes.

A coalition govern is well in sight, a possibility for South African politics. Should the ruling party not get an outright majority; the party will be forced to sit at the table with one or two small parties that can garner 4% to 6% national support.


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