By The world as we know it is changing at dizzying pace and one has no choice but to adjust or be ejected. The South African political land scape is no different, the electorate are proving more complex to convince and this year’s national and provincial elections are marked with stark uncertainty.
Three decades back, on 27 April 1994, it was clear that the ANC will take over government, the voters were excited and eager to vote for the liberation party, it was easy to predict the outcome and the outgoing party knew it as well. 30 years later, it is not clear who will win.
Based on the Electoral Commission’s (IEC) data base, there are 27.7 million registered voters on its roll, out of a population of 62 million. Women make up the large bulk of the registered voters roll at 55.24% while men still proof hard to convince into action.
According to the Ipsos report, just above a third (35%) of the registered electorate say no party is talking to their needs or even represent their views, with so many options available, still there are citizens who feel the disconnect with politicians. A mere 23% of the registered voters thinks that the country is on the right trajectory, while 66% of the registered voters think the country is lost in the wilderness.
Though 27.7 million have registered to vote, not all will show up to cast their vote to make the necessary change in the direction of the country. Many are still in the valley of decision and if not convinced on the eleventh hour, they might just as well stay home with their vote.
This is a nerve wrecking election for the ruling party who has dominated the space for six terms; the outcome of elections is not certain. With the advent of the revenge party MK Party eating away support from the ANC, has complicated matters even more for the liberation party.
Discontent is at a concerning high towards the ruling party for its unfulfilled promises over the years and lack of service delivery, corruption and lack of accountability. Only 38% of the electorate believe that the ANC will live up to its promises post elections; this has pushed its support base lower than 50% nationally, most of the support of the ANC is in rural areas.
However, MK Party is not only hurting the ANC, but as collateral damage, it has stagnated both the EFF and the DA in KZN province. Though the opposition may show some force, South Africans are still not certain whether to trust them or not; a majority remains unconvinced that they will address their challenges should they assume power.
In the final push, political parties will attempt the last minute persuasion to get those who are still undecided to decide in their favour.
For the first time since democracy, we see independent candidates contesting the elections to make up for what political parties have failed to do for the people of South Africa. However, the system is designed for political parties and would be a miracle to have an independent candidate in parliament.
Though there is excitement, just like in 1994 to change the regime, the spirit is the same but complicated by lack of trust in politicians. There is a cry for change amongst the citizens across all races, but who will take over the country? With so many entrants, votes will be fragmented and the parties will share the spoils resulting in no outright win.
A coalition government is possible; this will however spell the end of an ANC sole rule and dominance in politics; and possibly the end of it in the next elections.
However, people might just change their minds at the very last minute and decide to vote for the devil they know instead of the risk of trying something new.
